Saudi
Arabia Riyal looks to Re-align
MiddleEastForex.com
Sunday, September 4, 2005
RIYADH –
China's revaluation of the yuan increases the possibility of
the re-alignment of the Saudi Riyal to a weak U.S. dollar
especially while trading links with Asia and Europe continue to grow.
Saudi Arabia and many
Gulf countries have pegged their currency to the dollar for
years. Weakness in recent years of the dollar and the growth in Asian
and European imports have cut into the purchasing power of the Gulf
countries, whose export earnings from oil are also denominated in
dollars.
The value of Gulf Arab
imports from China, which were negligible just a decade ago, grew last
year to $14.5 billion, or 8.5 percent of total imports.
While record oil prices
may mask the impact of costlier goods, economists say the case for
linking to a basket of currencies instead of the dollar – just like
China – is gaining ground.
"There is a gathering
debate about this," said Daniel Hanna, an economist with Standard
Chartered bank in Dubai.
"The majority of the
Gulf trade is with Asia and the European Union. You can make a case that
the currency peg should reflect that better, especially since China will
be their fastest growing partner," he said.
One vocal advocate of
swift change, National Commercial Bank senior economist Nahed Taher,
says Saudi Arabia cannot afford to wait until 2010 to loosen ties
between the riyal (SAR-) and the dollar which have been fixed since
1987.
Taher has called for a
managed float of the riyal against a basket of currencies, within a 5
percent band, arguing that costlier imports are partly responsible for
pushing annual inflation up to 6 percent for the last two years.