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Gold
May Rally for 10th Straight Week; Jim Rogers Expects $1,000 an Ounce
May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise for a 10th straight week, topping a 26-year high of $732 an ounce, as investors buy bullion as an alternative to stocks or bonds, a Bloomberg News survey shows. Eighteen of 28 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Sydney to Chicago on May 11 and May 12 advised buying gold, which rose $27.50 to $711.80 last week in New York. Five recommended selling. Five were neutral. Gold is up 31 percent the past two months, and Quantum Fund co-founder Jim Rogers says prices may reach $1,000. Investment in shares of the StreetTracks Gold Trust, which is linked to the price of gold, on May 12 swelled to $8.1 billion, the most since the fund began trading in November 2004. ``Investors are coming to realize the positives'' of gold, said George Milling-Stanley, manager of market analysis at the London-based World Gold Council, which created StreetTracks. ``It's a hedge against the dollar. It's a hedge against inflation. It's a hedge against geopolitical tensions. Those are the reasons gold has been going up for five years and probably will continue to do so.'' The 4 percent gain in gold last week on the Comex was anticipated by a majority of analysts surveyed May 4 and May 5. The Bloomberg survey has forecast the direction of prices accurately in 67 of 107 weeks, or 63 percent of the time. Ten straight weeks of gains would be the longest rally since February 2003. Gold is up 37 percent this year, outperforming the 3.8 percent gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Holders of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury lost 4.7 percent. Jim Rogers, Stocks Rogers, the former George Soros partner who foresaw the start of the commodity rally in 1999, said he ``wouldn't buy stocks now'' because the returns will be eclipsed by commodities. ``The commodity bull market started in 1999,'' Rogers said in an interview last week. ``Since then, commodities are up 300 percent. Stocks up about 25 or 30 percent. Commodities have done 10-times better. Sure, stocks have been doing well this year. But that's nothing to where commodities are.'' Gold is still below its all-time high of $873 and about 60 percent below the inflation-adjusted peak, Rogers said. Bullion also may gain because of a decline in the U.S. dollar. `Politically Dangerous' ``It has become politically dangerous for a foreigner to own, hold and invest in U.S. assets,'' said Ian MacDonald, managing director of precious metals trading in New York for International Assets Holding Corp. ``Consequently, the panic is on to sell the U.S. dollar. Gold is up again because it remains the last neutral currency free from political intervention.'' The dollar has fallen 7.9 percent against a basket of six major currencies this year. The Federal Reserve's Trade-Weighted Major Currency Dollar Index is at a 14-month low on speculation Japan, Europe and other countries will raise interest rates faster than the U.S. to fight inflation. Gold priced in yen has climbed 29 percent this year. Gold sold in euros has risen 27 percent. The metal priced in the two currencies climbed 36 percent last year. Some investors also may buy gold as a haven from political unrest that threatens to disrupt financial markets. The conflict over the nuclear program in Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, may disrupt supply and spur higher energy costs and inflation. Inflation Concern Gold futures soared to a record $873 in January 1980 after a revolution in Iran slashed the nation's oil exports and oil prices more than doubled in 1979. Inflation climbed more than 12 percent in those years. Oil reached a record $75.35 a barrel on April 24. Consumer prices in April are expected to rise at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, up 2 basis points, according to the median estimate of 10 economists in a separate Bloomberg survey. ``Inflation has gone from 1 percent to 3 to 4 percent,'' said Milling-Stanley. ``That doesn't terrify people, but the direction is disturbing.'' Gold's climb from $600 to $700 within a month may signal a top, some analysts said. ``The talk of country clubs, the grocery market check out lines, and the practice tee has become of gold,'' said Dennis Gartman, economist, trader and editor of the Suffolk, Virginia- based Gartman Letter. ``Mom and Pop are watching gold, and if they've not yet invested in it, they are considering doing so for the first time in decades. This is the stuff of market tops.'' Buying Opportunity A decline in prices should be a buying opportunity, some analysts said. Gold is in the middle phase of a bull run and prices could run up to $1,000 before experiencing a correction similar to ``the one that hit gold in early 2004 and lasted until mid-2005,'' said Thomas Au, a partner at R.W. Wentworth & Co. in New York. ``There will be some corrections in this commodities bull market just as there has been in every bull market in history,'' Rogers said, who predicted last month gold would reach $1,000, without saying when. ``Use those corrections as an opportunity to buy. Don't panic and get out.'' Higher prices have deterred physical buyers, some analysts said. Jewelers accounted for 73 percent of purchases last year, according to GFMS Ltd., a precious metals researcher in London. ``The gap between gold prices and physical demand is too great, like a river that can't be crossed,'' said Pom Chong Kim, assistant manager at Hansung Co., a precious metals trading company in Seoul. ``Many buyers are waiting to buy after prices fall so a correction may not last too long.'' |
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