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- A FAST GROWING FINANCIAL NEWS LETTER - BEING READ IN OVER 60 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE - |
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TGDL Gold
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Dear member, I've been citing GATA's work for many times in the past and I'm proud to be a strong GATA supporter ever since its inception in early 1999. As mentioned in earlier essays GATA's support is growing rapidly and includes heavy weight gold insiders as eg Frank Veneroso, John Embry, Doug Casey and peter Grandich.. Nevertheless there are always people around who do like to challenge GATA's mental capacity. Today concerns a good example since John Reade of UBS called GATA a bunch of idiots. Sure enough this lit up a heavy fire in the GATA camp of which is reported on in detail in todays MIDAS (Bill Murphy's daily gold commentary on LemetropoleCafe). Bill Murphy has shared his commentary with the Gold Discovery Letter of which we are very greatfull. Enjoy the reading Best Regards, Eric hommelberg
John Reade of UBS: "Gata are idiots" If the truth doesn't save us, what does that say about us? …Lois McMaster Bujold, writer (1949- ) GO GATA!!! This morning our Comex floor source says the boys on the floor have been impressed how the market has absorbed enormous central bank selling. However, he felt they would attack again before the price slide would be halted. The gold open interest rose AGAIN, up 6609 contracts to 403,338, more anecdotal evidence of significant shorting by The Gold Cartel on a day the dollar went lower. The silver open interest was up sharply, rising 2673 contracts to 123,627. The cabal crowd was taking NO chance the price of silver would be up today, allowing the $14 silver calls to go into the money. Geez what a surprise! The Comex crooks not only managed to knock out 700 call holders, but the $675 ones too. Neal Ryan of Blanchard and Company:
Reasons why gold was not allowed to rise today:
What is so sick is that the mainstream gold analysts are either the dumbest nerds in analysis history, or so disingenuous that it would make Pinocchio blush. The manipulation of the gold price, silver as well, is both absurdly obvious and an outrage.
Mr. Reade, Idiots? At least we can spell. Some feedback from some of the rest of our "idiots:"
From Rob Kirby:
But looky here [attached]: There is no REAL DEMAND for these derivatives. It’s right here in plain black and white!!!! End user demand is virtually NON EXISTENT!!!! But look at the growth in "ponzi" dealer notionals!!!! Ask John Reade to speak to this – IT IS DIRECTLY CONNECTED!!!!! But like I said, He won’t. Any bets? ************** Bill; We’re the fools – ONLY if we believe what he’s telling
us. Too much anecdotal evidence refutes his claims – plain and simple. ************** Greetings all, ************** Bill, Furthermore GS used to have a short and a long position. They are now only short but decreasing it. To play arbitrage you would typically need a long and short leg. I would like to point out that the same Goldman Sachs is LONG 234 contracts in silver with 1 contract short. I suppose they don’t want to arbitrage silver in the same way as John Reade suggests they want to in gold. I don’t mind rational discussion, I
don’t mind being wrong, but challenging our mental capacity is not productive! ************** Bill, A one liner that writes off this
consistently loss making trade on the TOCOM trade as "arb" is about as good as
the WMD excuse for the Iraq War! ************** Hi Adrian, ************** Bill,
************** June 14, 2001 - Gold
$275.60 up $3.40 - Silver $4.47 up 7 cents As far as the stock market goes, it looks in deep trouble to me - along with the Wall Street analysts that are now receiving incredible heat for peddling their dot.com stock mania nonsense. The place to be will be gold and the gold shares. GOLD IS ON ITS WAY TO $600 PER OUNCE! John Reade of UBS Warburg notes that option dealers are stunned by the volatility. Good Grief. They have not seen anything yet. They also are going to pay a price for what The Gold Cartel has wrought. I repeat, if you do not understand that the gold market was not a free market for 6 or 7 years, but a RIGGED market, then you know little about what is going on or what is going to happen and why. Overly hedged gold producers and shareholders in those companies, BEWARE. One day soon, gold will open $300 bid and never look back! September 23, 2001 -
Gold $290.65 up $4.35 - Silver $4.58 up 8 cents John Reade of UBS Warburg Paine Webber told Paine Webber's stock brokerage executives on Friday that he has turned quite bullish. Interestingly enough, that does not come through in his daily bullion market commentary. I met both John and Andy when Reg Howe and I went to the FT Gold Conference in Paris June of last year. Nice enough chaps, even if they have been on the wrong side of table as far as GATA is concerned. There is no doubt in my mind that both fellows were fully aware of the gold games being played by The Gold Cartel. The fact that they are now so bullish ought to tell us something. Eh? That does not mean that gold will soar
sky high right away. It SHOULD, but The Gold Cartel is desperate beyond
comprehension due to a myriad of problems. For years I have warned of this
possibility in CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH. The cabal will do whatever they can
to hold down the price of gold as long as they can. All that means (if they
stay at it) is more opportunity for us to buy more and more gold and the right
gold shares at cheap prices. July 21, 2002 - Gold $323.90 - Silver $5.08 The Significance of Understanding
"Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard" "It certainly is possible that gold can return to its long-term equilibrium inflation price of $500 an ounce, or even take a run at its all-time high of close to $1,000. What would cause such an explosion? A steep decline in the equities market, higher inflation, or competitive devaluation of the major currencies. In a bleak world, gold could beat almost everything else." Biggs is one of the most respected men on Wall Street, although that is not saying much these days. For him to even mention $500/$1,000 gold is profoundly significant. A $375 call would have been a big deal. Men like him do not utter outrageous numbers like this, even in serious private conversations, much less put those kind of numbers up in writing. Biggs is an icon in the Wall Street world. What is going on here? Gold Field Mineral Services, the flunky bullion dealer apologist organization, upped its forecast for gold a couple of months ago to a range of $285 to $315. Biggs' Wall Street colleagues in the bullion dealer houses partly fund this gold industry organization. Aside from the recent HSBC analyst gold forecast, the only other bullish bullion dealer gold forecast I know of is that of UBS Warburg's John Reade. He went out on a limb last week predicting gold could actually rally to $330. Officially, the other bullion dealer houses are either bearish or neutral. -END- (Barton Biggs spoke of $1,000 gold on CNBC. The VERY next day this sheepish looking soul was back on CNBC disavowing what he said. Clearly he was strong-armed to recant speaking of such nonsense by The Gold Cartel and his Morgan Stanley management) September 3, 2004 - Gold $400 down
$5.50 – Silver $6.54 down 19 cents Now for the main gold event for the day. It comes from a UBS report out this morning by John Reade out of London: John Reade Central Banks may sell The entire report may be read by clicking below: ************** The essence of what John Reade (whom Reg Howe and I met at the FT Gold Conference in Paris in May of 2000) has to say is that the central banks covered by the Washington Agreement may sell as little as 250 tonnes of gold per year instead of an anticipated 500 tonnes. While this report may be construed as modestly bullish by UBS, it is explosive the way GATA understands the gold market. Why: *The gold establishment (probably including UBS) says the central banks have 32,000 tonnes of gold in their vaults, minus 2500 to 4,000 tonnes lent out for various hedging operations, etc. Their number used to be slightly higher, but since they do not account for lent/swapped gold other than to hedgers, this number has to be smaller today because the gold producers have cut back on their hedges so sharply over the past couple of years. *The GATA camp, via the analysis of Turk, Howe and Veneroso, believes the central banks have less than 16,000 tonnes left. The difference is the CB gold which has been lent/swapped out surreptitiously to facilitate their nefarious gold price suppression scheme. *It has been my long held opinion the price of gold would never really take off until The Gold Cartel is defeated. They would eventually be defeated because they would not have enough physical gold to meet demand. Thus, the price must rise to ration the excess demand when the cartel supply began running low, or ran out. In this regard the main determinant of the price of gold for the months and years ahead will be what happens to The Gold Cartel and their gold to meet surging demand. This is in contrast to many others who believe the dollar will be the main determinant of the gold price. **The difference between the central banks having something like 29,000 tonnes of gold in their vaults versus less than 16,000 tonnes, as GATA believes, is enormous and extremely important. The yearly supply/demand deficit is running more than 1500 tonnes per year. This means The Gold Cartel needs to come up with 1500 tonnes per year to keep the price from rising. *GATA knows our numbers are in the ballpark. We just don’t know where The Gold Cartel is getting their gold from. What this means is a number of central banks don’t have the gold they say they have, and have not let the investment world (and in some cases, the citizens of their own countries) in on this. Much of their gold is lent out and they cannot get it back without driving the price of gold to the moon. The Gold Cartel is like a heroin addict. It needs its fix of clandestine gold each week and month. Therefore, not only can it not stop selling gold, it must keep on getting its fix, or adding more gold. If they stop, MUCH LESS TRY AND GET THEIR GOLD BACK, the yearly supply demand deficit would balloon to 2500 tonnes+. The price would immediately go berserk. *John Reade has a staff of 9 people. At least he did when he had lunch with Reg and I because that is how many were at the luncheon table. John is also very well connected and would not put out a report such as this without some INFORMED insight as to what is likely to transpire and what the quiet scuttlebutt really is in the central banking world. *My guess is The Gold Cartel is finally hitting the wall as GATA long predicted they would. They are probably going around trying to figure out who is going to sell what and have learned that various central banks will not lend or swap any more out for any number of reasons. Or, they can’t because it is not there any longer. *This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Yesterday I reported some of my sources said something big is up. This sort of news certainly qualifies, as once clearly understood, gold could move gold up $60, or more, in a matter of weeks.March 3, 2005 – Gold $429.60 down $2.70
– Silver $7.19 down 10 cents "We believe that the rally in silver is getting rather long in the tooth. We forecast that silver will average $5.80 in 2005 and $5.60 in 2006," said John Reade, precious metals *** More gold goodies: Gold Jottings: UBS noticing India? Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.68, PM $3.44, with world gold at $683.40 and $685.40. Lavish for legal imports. The rupee edged up to a new 9-year high, but both world gold and the rupee were comparatively steady today. Consequently these premiums –which are comparable at all the importing cities Reuters reports – command confidence. Bloomberg notes today that the rupee is on track for its strongest month in 30 years. The world gold market has never had to deal with a situation like this. India only became as important (and visible) a factor as it now is in the gold trade after liberalization some ten years ago. UBS commented this morning: “We saw very strong physical demand from India on Tuesday; double the amount on Monday although this was not enough to prevent gold falling. It should be an indication that underlying physical demand is strong at the moment and is a supportive factor. The very strong Indian rupee may be playing a role here, something we will write more about later today if we get the chance (and thanks to the client for the heads up one this: we knew the rupee was strong but had not realised quite how much it had moved until alerted).” A telling admission by one of the best-placed commentators. None of this aroused the least interest in Japan (which will be closed for 3 days next week). Volume did edge up 12.2% to the equivalent of 20,581 Comex lots, but open interest was static (down 4 Comex lots!) and Mitsubishi’s data implies the same: the public’s long was shaved by 0.4 tonnes. The active contract closed unchanged and world gold added 90c from the NY close. As suspected, yesterday’s selling effort turned out to be formidable. Comex traded 94,221 contracts and combined CBOT volume was equivalent to 41,053 NY lots. NY added 6,609 lots of open interest and combined CBOT another 836, so that, overall, US futures added 23.15 tonnes on a down $6.50 day: this was not liquidation. This means that in seven business days NY gold lost $2.10 and added 103.53 tonnes of open interest (8.9%): a major effort on both sides. Today despite gold friendly action by both the dollar and oil gold was under constant pressure in NY, beginning according to MKS with some serious selling on the PM fix. However, the Bears could not build downward momentum and gold closed down only 40c. NY traded some 42,000 lots by the regular close and combined CBOT just over 26,000 NY equivalent. Most likely a significant part of the fresh selling in the past few days is commercially motivated shorting, seeking to trade off the glaring resistance around $690. Going short to the rupee-strength fortified Indian retail demand is likely to prove seriously unhealthy. *** CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH The always rising DOW did it again, up 136 to 130.90. The DOG gained 23 to 2548.
Why the Fed eliminated the M-3 stats: Bill; Temporary Open Market Operations for April 25, 2007 http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm· At 10:20 a.m. – 18 billion in 3 day repos [5 billion of which were agency/mortgaged backed] · At 9:40 a.m. – 2 billion in 1 day repos [all of which are agency/mortgaged backed] · At 8:40 a.m. – 14.5 billion in 8 day repos [7 billion of which were agency/mortgaged backed] I think what we are witnessing here – in almost real time - is a vain attempt to "sweep" the sub-prime mortgage debacle under an even larger pile of fanciful, fecal, fiat. This "reeks" of desperate measures being undertaken by monetary authorities to right a ship that is listing BADLY. All hands on deck [and don’t forget your golden life-preservers]. Best, Rob
Kirby ************** "Very Strange indeed ... more: There
was a REPO action today that I have not seen before. They added 18B in a 5 day
forward auction. I have not seen that before. ************** US economic news: 07:05
MBA mortgage purchase applications index +3.7% in 20-Apr week 08:30
Mar Durable Goods Orders reported 3.4% vs. consensus 2.5%;
ex-Transportation 1.5% vs. consensus 1.1% 10:00
Mar New Home Sales reported 858K vs. consensus 890K The spin is beyond belief! Homes sales gain in the headline (March over February) but fall 23.5% year over year buried in the text. Foreclosures were up 27% in the first quarter (not in the report). Until we see prices drop significantly, things will only get worse. Chuck. 10:30
DOE reports crude oil inventories +2.07M barrels vs. consensus (1.5M) barrels 14:00
Beige Book reports most districts report modest or moderate expansion BIG TROUBLE for the White House: Gonzales Aide Monica Goodling Gets Immunity http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/042507A.shtml A House committee voted Wednesday to grant immunity to Monica Goodling, a key aide to Attorney General Alberto Gonzales during the firings of eight US attorneys. She had refused to testify, invoking her Fifth Amendment rights against self-incrimination. The 32-6 vote by the House Judiciary Committee surpassed the two-thirds majority required to grant a witness immunity from prosecution. A separate vote to authorize a subpoena for Goodling passed by voice vote. -END- Maybe now we will find out what the real story is and where the thousands of lost White House emails went to and why. Iron Ore Price to Rise Next Two Years on China Demand, RBC Says 2007-04-24 20:46 (New York) By Jesse Riseborough April 25 (Bloomberg) -- The benchmark price of iron ore, a key steelmaking ingredient, may rise for a further two years, making it seven straight increases due to Chinese demand, RBC Capital Markets said. The price may rise 10 percent next year and 5 percent in 2009 to a record, analysts Chris Lancaster and Michael Chandler said in an April 23 report. The analysts had earlier forecast a 25 percent and 20 percent fall respectively. Baosteel Group Corp., China's biggest steelmaker, said yesterday it will increase annual purchases of the raw ingredient by 90 percent by 2012 as it expands mills to meet demand from auto and appliance makers. China overtook Japan as the world's largest buyer of ore in 2003. -END- TOCOM: Ladies and Gentlemen: In silver the same dealers
reduced their net short position by 143 contracts to 5,219 contracts. Bill,
The importance of this development can not be overstated. It can be seen that the only previous time when such a large reduction in short position was made so quickly against a rising gold price was during the meteoric rise to $725/oz last year. The gold price is not rising as steeply but it must be frightening the living daylights out of the Cartel because despite all the gold that the ECB can throw at the market the gold price has just trundled onward and upward like a CARTEL TERMINATOR! But there is another truly remarkable feature of the chart. Notice how from Jan to October 2006 the GS short position correlates perfectly with the gold price. As the gold price rises so does GS short position to try to slow down or stop the price rise. As the gold price breaks down the GS short position reduces as they cover on the downdraft. This is manipulation 101. But look what has happened since October 2006…the gold price and the GS short positions are trending in OPPOSITE directions. After covering shorts in the correction from POG $725 GS has CONTINUED reducing their short position even as the gold price turned around and started to rise in October 2006. This is a covering operation that has been on-going for 10 months, but it was only the covering of the last few days which made this downtrend channel the apparent dominant trend. This is GS RUNNING FOR THE EXITS. GS certainly wants to get out of Dodge
in a hurry. I wonder if recurring nightmares of Lihir showing up on the TOCOM
with 1.2 Billion dollars in cash in large suitcases wanting to buy 1.7 million
ozs of gold for immediate delivery has got them worried! ************** On Mr. Russell: Bill, ************** Hi Bill, Al is correct .. Greg says gold and the dollar are "managed." More from Al: Featured on the Daily Korelin Economics Report: "Congressman Ron Paul Expresses Concern Over the Future of the U.S. Dollar" When Congressman Ron Paul announced his candidacy for the presidency of the United States, we immediately expressed our support, as did many of our colleagues - Jay Taylor, Rick Rule, Doug Casey, Roger Weigand, Ben Johnson and a host of others. We began to discuss issues with the congressman and Jeff Deist, a senior member of his staff, each week on The Korelin Economics Report in order to make listeners aware of his views. We also posted a video of an interview with him which we did in San Francisco at the Gold Show on our website and on You Tube, which has been watched by thousands of people. Why did we devote 20% of our program to the Congressman? Purely and simply because we believe that his views of the U.S. economy are spot on. For the past fifteen years we have presented all the economic views that we are aware of, both positive and negative. Each week we have guests who agree with the conventional financial press and those who disagree. We do this because we believe that people need to be aware of all sides of the issues so that they can effectively make up their own minds. On our daily show of Tuesday, April 24th, we discussed with the Congressman his views of the U.S. dollar and the future interest or lack thereof of the Asian economies in purchasing our debt. His views are pessimistic and quite different from what you may read in your daily papers. Why is all of this relevant to Kitco visitors? Purely and simply because of the relationship between the price of gold and the value of the U.S. dollar. As you are aware when the U.S. dollar goes down in value the opposite usually occurs in the price of an ounce of gold. Just last week, the U.S. dollar dropped rather significantly against the Euro and we saw an increase in gold’s value. Then, for whatever reason, on the following Monday the U.S. dollar firmed up and gold’s value decreased.Prior to that weekend, Roger Weigand stated on our program that central bankers would buy dollars and sell Euros in order to increase the value of the dollar and reverse the trend. He said that this would happen because a "freefall" in the price of the dollar (as he put it) would be detrimental to our economy and to the world economy as a whole. The interesting question here is, just how long will central bankers support the U.S. dollar. Or as Congressman Paul asked listeners of our show, "How long will China and Japan continue to purchase our debt?" If you believe that inflation is under control; that unemployment in the U.S. is not a problem; that the current personal and governmental debt levels in the U.S. are not a problem; and, that the housing environment in the U.S. is just fine then I would suggest that you forget about buying gold and silver and the related investments. As long as people believe economic factors such as these are not a problem, the U.S. dollar will be just fine. If you believe, as Congressman Ron Paul does, that a problem does exist; however, than I suggest that gold and silver are a great investment. If you did not hear my conversation with Congressman Ron Paul on one of the stations in the thirty markets where it airs, simply go to www.kereport.com and click on the date under his picture to listen. -END- A heads-up: Hi Bill, http://www.forsoundmoney.com/2007/04/24/they-are-all-sinking-part-ii/ All the best, ************** On the continually decreasing mine supply: Harmony lifts earnings, production drops Harmony reported lower production in
the quarter, with tons milled from South African operations dropping by 6,2%
to 3,15-million tons. http://www.miningweekly.co.za/article.php?a_id=107881 -END- From our man in Nigeria: Morning Bill (from Lagos), The Lagos election results were declared and yet all remains reasonably peaceful. Whether by design or bad management, many people were disenfranchised by the lack of ballot papers, but life will go on-and from all accounts things are not nearly as bad as in Zimbabwe. Yesterday's 12.00 NY time manipulation was a classic, but please bear one thing in mind. It looks bad on the KITCO charts, but this is because the trading range of gold has contracted into a far tighter range than during many periods in the past. Who is winning the gold war? If you don't know about this facility, go to the chart page on KITCO.COM and scroll right down to the bottom, past the three month, six month, one year charts etc. The last bar line of the page allows recall of historic charts. Look at Jan 3rd 07 (POG down $20), Jan 7th (down $25), Feb 27th (down $27), March 3rd (down $23).Look at all this price action when POG at one point faced off against the $600 barrier-it only takes about two minutes to perform this review. Clearly GATA is winning this war hands down. The action on the HUI in the last 48
hours suggests that the usual suspects knew in advance exactly what was going
to happen at exactly the stroke of 12.00 in NY yesterday. Right now it is 9.05
am (both European and African time) and POG is at $685.5 this Wednesday
morning. So the cartel actually got so little ''bang for their buck''
vis-a-vis the kind of spectacular manipulative results achieved only a couple
of months ago. I read a leading article in the Financial Times of London last
week that basically referred to the euphoric American markets as clearly being
in a state of dementia. I have been in a hotel since the beginning of the year
and so have not recently watched Bloomberg and CNBC . When I was watching
regularly, even before the most recent dollar melt down, I could easily
distinguish the superior, less biased content ,of these media channels when
the program s came direct from Europe or Asia, as the USA slept. The rest of
the world is not being fooled. It won't be long now. Good news from GATA supporter Sur American: http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/070424/200704240386224001.html?.v=1 -END- ************** For those interested, Eric Hommelberg forwards us an ECU silver update: Hi Bill,
http://www.golddrivers.com/a All the best, ************** Sentiment On a lighter note: There is hope. Spoke to Mom Murphy. Yesterday Mom, 86 years young in 45 days, a stroke survivor, and referred to the other day by Father Pat Murphy, was pumped about playing for the "C" level championship at her Rancho Bernardo Country Club. Then on the first two holes she shot a 7 and then 11. She told me tonight she was disgusted with her play at that point in time. Those "craps" numbers must have been good luck, for she won the "net" prize, scoring a 103 gross score at the end of the day, which means she was playing the course at around a 94 pace for the last 16 holes. How many of us Café golfers could do the same? GO MOM! FYI: Howdy, Bill-- My work is posted every week at Jim's
site where I do a thorough analysis of this, both in gross terms and
percentage terms. Neither one shows anything near a peak. When it does I will
make some minor comments about it since I do not believe in being a Trojan
horse for the gold cartel like this clown does. He is symptomatic of
everything that is wrong with the gold community – they spend their tim e
looking for re asons for gold to collapse rather than to go up and yet all
claim to be friends of gold. The gold cartel could not as k for a better set
of friends. A pox on the entire worthless lot of them. Who the hell cares if gold sets back in
price from time to time? Nothing ever goes straight up. You buy it on weakness
and sell it on strength and play the game over and over again. You can tell
those who actually trade for a living and understand markets and those who
write newsletters and run after diplomas . The floor in gold just got set another
notch higher. Use trendlines and oscillators and ignore everything else. More on sentiment: Could sentiment be any lower than it is right now? Assets in the Rydex precious metals fund (investor class which is the big fund) has declined every day since April 12th and is about as low as it's been in 2007, despite gold rising 5% since Jan 1. and the HUI index up 13% ytd. Was wondering if you could provide a Cafe sentiment update. And is it any wonder sentiment sucks? In the 5+ years that I've been trading gold and silver futures, I've have never seen a capping campaign as aggressive as the one going on right now. I woke up at 5 a.m. Denver time to see June gold at 689.50 and rebounding from lower levels where I reloaded a few hours earlier before getting some sleep, and I also saw 100 contracts sitting on the offer at 690 (ecbot system). $700 has been capped since February and 695 has been capped since very aggressively since 4/16 (as proof look at the open interest expansion AND the ECB system sales). I have to believe that China and India
and the Arab countries accumulating physical gold are sitting back and loving
life - laughing at western fiat-based central bankers. I would encourage
everyone to sit tight on positions, because my instinct tells me that May
could be very profitable for those who can stand the pain of stomach acid from
the agitation of watching this horror and knowing the truth... The Cafe sentiment is lousy: Chuck checked in late last night: Bill: The XAU rose 1.70, and the HUI gained 3.19 to 351.32. Time to view the monthly gold chart again. It has been some run ... straight up and then a year of consolidation. Get ready for the next let to kick in ... http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/M
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT! MIDAS
Appendix ALoHa
BiLL !!
READ ON: NEW UPDATE: 4.23.07 – NAKED SHORT SELLING UPDATE: PATRICK BYRNE Bill, "Effective today, the CBOT is significantly lowering margins on their gold, silver and bond futures contracts http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,136,00.html. This
change increases leverage on silver to 15 to 1 and on gold to 25 to 1. This
makes no sense to lower margins when prices are at 11 month highs other than
to get market share back from COMEX. This should be bullish for metal prices,
but I can’t help thinking it is trap to crush margined longs. What’s the old
saying about a gift horse? Thanks, I have been wondering for a while why the ultimate take- down weapon (increasing the gold- and silver margin requirements) has not been used recently (It was partly responsible for the massive down moves a few months ago). Perhaps it just reeks too much of desperation. Now I am shocked to see a LOWERING of the margins in the face of rising gold! This
has to be a trap! Sucker in some more longs, allow gold to break 700$/oz, make
it look like the breakout is upon us, and then pull the breaks (increase
margin requirements substantially). A large number of futures will be forced
to be liquidated into a falling market, triggering more stops. It looks to me
like we are being set up for a massive one day down move...(> 100$)? Then
again the substantial recent CB selling, rising gold, and short covering by GS
in Tokyo tell a different story. Either direction, fireworks are likely to be
upon us soon. (There has to be a spread or straddle for that?) |
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