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by
Eric Hommelberg
Dec
21, 2004
The Gold Drivers 2005 report provides a comprehensive
overview of 5 critical drivers all pointing towards higher Gold prices the
years ahead. Readers will be stunned that not
one
critical driver goes against Gold. When investors find out that half of all
central bank Gold is gone in the face of those critical drivers pointing
towards higher Gold prices a rush on Gold could very well emerge which could
sky-rocket the price of Gold into new all-time highs. As Professor Fekete
warns, "Zero supply, infinite demand". We must heed his warning. People will
find out that Gold is precious indeed and hard to find. Mine supply is going
down coming years no matter what the Gold price does. Check out the details
in the seven chapters of the Gold Drivers 2005 report below.
Check out
Gold's historical norm and see that Gold is extremely cheap compared to its
own historical norm, towards the Dow, towards the CRB and Oil.
Gold bottomed out in 2001 after a 20 year bear market and marked there the
start of a new multi year bull market in Gold. Still very few investors have
picked upon it. Legendary profits are to be made. DOW/GOLD chart topped out
above 40 in 2000 and is heading down fast (currently at 25). Someday during
this decade the DOW/GOLD ratio will fall below 2 again pointing to far
higher Gold prices the years ahead.
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This chapter discusses the forces dragging down the US$. The US is facing a
Current Account Deficit exceeding 5% of GDP which raises many alarm bells.
The
US
economy is addicted to an inflow of $2 billion dollars every single working
day. This is simply not sustainable since it
requires almost 80% of world savings. Even FED officials pointing
towards a lower dollar. Foreign Central Banks just
started selling US dollars in order to diversify its currency reserves. A Dollar devaluation is
very Gold friendly since Gold is still a monetary asset and trades like a
currency. If the Dollar goes so will Gold but in opposite direction.
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Gold &
Inflation is
chapter III of the Gold drivers 2005 report. It discusses the possibility of
Inflation picking up steam and how it could affect Gold. As long as the FED
doesn’t raise interest rates fast enough in order to contain Inflation, real
rates will stay negative. History suggests that negative real rates are on of
the strongest drivers for the price of Gold. Furthermore Inflation is much
higher than reported by Government.
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This chapter focus on a declining Gold production coming
years. A declining Gold supply only increases the pressure on a already
tight physical Gold market. Many alarm bells were being raised since 2002
regarding future mine supply. In 2004 mine supply dropped already by 5% and
this problem won't be solved anytime soon. Newmont president Pierre
Lassonde said :
“The 20-year bear market
in gold has weeded out marginal gold producers and significantly curbed
exploration and production.”. "If gold was $1,000 an ounce, it still takes
four to seven years to open a mine," END.
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Demand for Gold is growing these days. It comes from several sectors such as
, producer dehedging, increase of investment demand, shift from CB selling
into CB buying etc. Just China itself will contribute considerably to the
expected increase in demand for Gold. Last year the Honk Kong edition of
Friday’s China Daily quoted the Bank of China’s bullion guru saying : “local
consumers could pour $36 billion into the metal, equivalent to around 2,950
tonnes, or more than one year of supply, at current prices.” Xi Jianhua, the
Bank of China's gold business expert, is also quoted saying that it would be
"safe and feasible" for China swap to some foreign exchange reserves for
gold.
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This chapter discusses the
ongoing manipulation in the Gold market.
More
and more heavyweight Gold industry experts do support GATA's claims that the Gold
market is not free and not fair. The problem with every manipulation scheme
is that no single item can be manipulated against its primary trend for a
long period of time, so when the manipulative efforts fail Gold is about to
explode. Signs are surfacing everywhere that this is just about to happen.
Even the Russian central bank acknowledges that the price of Gold should be
trading above $700 nowadays.
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Since 1971 no currency with
any kind of Gold backing does exist so many analysts do argue that Gold hasn’t
any monetary status anymore. Well, nothing could be further from the truth. In
1971 president Nixon closed the Gold window. Critics of Gold back then
argued that Gold had lost its monetary use and therefore would collapse below
35 US$ / ounce. They assumed that the paper dollar gave value to Gold, not the
other way around, they did not know that Gold was money. So what happened ?
Instead of falling below $35 it took off skyrocketing all the way up to
its all time high of $850 US$ / ounce.
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This chapter
discusses the historical
Gold/Oil ratio and shines a light on previous oil shocks and their
consequences. Furthermore it discusses PEAK-OIL and why it is about to bring
a nasty Oil shock coming years. The End of
Cheap Oil means continuing rising Oil prices which translates itself into Oil
shocks. Previous Oil
shocks were an perfect call for recession/Inflation. Gold is the
ultimate Hedge against Inflation. Rising Oil
prices brings the historical Gold/Oil average way out of balance. Historical
average of the Gold/Oil ratio suggest a price of Gold exceeding $800
nowadays. High Oil prices are here to stay so what gives, Oil going down or
Gold catching up ?
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This chapter focus on
investment in junior exploration companies. Major Gold producers are desperate
for new major discoveries in order to replace their dwindling Gold reserves.
75% of all discoveries are made by juniors therefore juniors on the verge of
discovery could be huge winners in a rising Gold environment. Anglogold CEO
Bobby Godsell said :
"The
race to replace ounces is about to begin. It will take the form of takeovers
of small producers with long reserve lives and high quality junior mining
companies with large in ground reserves that can be mined economically"END.
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